sam.louro.monteiro
Active member
Imo this is much more similar to a glicko rating system. while the game uses your normals mmr as a base, like in dota2, league and various othergames (even wc3champions addon) when you enter the ranked ladder you enter with a very high uncertainty so variance in rating gained and lost is much higher because it doesnt know yet where you stand.the 2nd and 3rd examples point towards some true skill system with heavy weight on individual performance, which enables people that are essentially smurfing to get jumped to the highest ranks without ever being tested against real opposition.
I have only found this thread now and the links you proposed are not from eternus players and you see how it fluctated. They did try some true skill approach (theysaid that individual character mmr's) but probably stopped as it created chasms in mm when i play my 5th game of haze but have a total 200games already right?
So with each win even if the system doesnt create games that did challenge him as much as possible, him winning created a very high gain in mmr which would then come down as he would be poorly match made and the system would correct itself.
Obviously at the start of the ranked system there will be disparity because there is low sample size. They might try different systems and works around as they are still cooking with everything in the game, but having someone skyrocket in the first week is fine they will go down if they do not bellow to the skill the rank expects with time (again from the links you post you see how everyone has gone down a bit, not much because they probably have decent skill to have gotten up there in the 1st place). Glicko is not perfect and there are odd cases where the system needs to be manually adjusted to create a good laddering experience (as an example what happened to Direct strike in wc3).
As everyone's bar starts at this, the 30% dota asks you is the equivalent in deadlock of the 7games to give you a rank where they think they know where you stand, then with mroe games it corrects itself. Should it need mroe games to tell? i don't think so, your games will be the same if it tells you or not, its just for the other's people's ego that it matters, and if its 10games does it change that much? 20? this is a test build, i don't get 20 games a week so how would i fair in this system? There has to be a low limit where you see result from your wr instead of being obscured (hehe).
TL;DR : don't take low sample size as pure evidence of a system working or not