Decent into madness: An analysis of my matchmaking experience in OCE

messiah4hire

New member
Like many others have observed, there has been a drastic change in the matchmaking recently and decided to take a more forensic look rather than just dump some matchIds in the megathread and be done with it because the problem feels far more systemic than just "the matchmaker can't make balanced matches".

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Around two weeks ago my winrate started a nosedive. In that period it's 29W 53L (that's a 35% winrate). I am the same player and as you can see from other metrics like souls, KDA and denies, they are either holding steady or improving, so the question is, how is it possible that a player who is objectively performing better, loses more?

If you flip a coin 100 times you're bound to get streaks of tails.
This is true and in a very black and white example like that I could not argue, however the matchmakers job is to try and push you towards a 50% winrate and ease the difficulty after every loss, yet once this drastic shift occurred, I can find myself up against the sweatiest 6 stacks in my region game after game with no respite.

You must be bad, that's why you're losing.
Before the change I would regularly be in ascendant and phantom lobbies performing well.
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I am also supposedly the rank #131 Warden and #197 Infernus in my region (OCE)
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So how it is possible that I am in so many unwinnable games if there should in theory be a large % of players who aren't as skilled as me?

It's just an alpha playtest!
Is it the goal of the playtest to drive away players with which to test? Because that is what's happening. This is, for lack of a better description, bullshit.

This sounds like you are advocating for something like engagement-based matchmaking
Maybe I am, or at the very least, some more elasticity or rapid elo gains or losses. You can't demoralise a player with an abysmal 35% winrate for weeks on end when they aren't deserving of that (it's not like I am some initiate rank struggling with basic concepts and mechanics) and expect them to stick around.

I will also add even a significant portion of the wins have felt horrible, like I have had no agency in the game and by chance some miracle teamfight swung it at the end, but that doesn't make up for the 30 minutes of misery endured before it.

I'll close by saying that I don't accept that there has been such a sharp change in my play, if anything I have been improving rapidly and trying harder to escape this tailspin of results, but I just keep getting beaten down. I either need some kind of explanation or to just quit and never return due to a feeling of broken trust with the system.
 
Well made post.
I felt like I was going insane because this should not be possible. I generally win lane, or at least break even. All the other lanes will always lose. The enemy team will always seem oddly coordinated, as if I only play against 5 or 6 man stacks. I used to do very well, now it never happens.
I'm angry. Out of all the online multiplayer games I have ever played I never complained, but this feels like EVERY match is rigged. Even if I was intentionally trying to lose, tthis should not be possible.

Worst matchmaking I have ever seen in my entire life.
 

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I'm having the same experience. I've even tried swapping to new characters (Paradox) to see if I could adjust my MMR or something and no, just got losses. We tried bringing in a new person to try the game, but we lost EVERY MATCH and our newbie has never launched Deadlock again.

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Loss Example Match ID: 29268014
I was trying a new character (Paradox), Kirito was a brand new player, and Marrtian was our other party member. We didn't know anyone else. The opposing team is so smoothly balanced that it felt like we were up against a 6 stack of full-communication players.

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Win Example Match ID: 29006986
I was in a party with Pantastical and Marrtian. The game went on for over 40 minutes of super sweaty gameplay before finally we were able to get the win. But it wasn't enjoyable.

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I came here to agree with the fact that wins do NOT feel good. Either very boring/uniteresting games, or just huge skill gap and stomp them ( even then the games take 35+ minutes for some reason)
Its hard to describe why exactly but wins lately do not feel hard earned and rewarding, feels like a slog.
 
Around two weeks ago my winrate started a nosedive. In that period it's 29W 53L (that's a 35% winrate). I am the same player and as you can see from other metrics like souls, KDA and denies, they are either holding steady or improving, so the question is, how is it possible that a player who is objectively performing better, loses more?

If you flip a coin 100 times you're bound to get streaks of tails.
This is true and in a very black and white example like that I could not argue, however the matchmakers job is to try and push you towards a 50% winrate and ease the difficulty after every loss, yet once this drastic shift occurred, I can find myself up against the sweatiest 6 stacks in my region game after game with no respite.

You must be bad, that's why you're losing.
Before the change I would regularly be in ascendant and phantom lobbies performing well.

so glad its not just me, week 5 of ranked I had an 80% winrate in high archon/low oracle and now it's a struggle to hold 50% in emissary, I really don't understand what happened but every game feels exactly the same, if I do well in my lane everyone else also does well in their lane, if I lose lane then my entire team is also losing lane.. voice comms and organization are almost completely gone from my games as well, in ranked most people had a mic.

furthermore the solo queue and 'competitive' queue are a total joke, based on my experiences and what other people in my lobbies say when I ask, neither of these options actually do anything they're just there to make us feel better about it or something
 
Yea AU is kinda messed up. For the record, I'm archon 3 and have a higher inburnus ranking than messiah4hire (this guy getting ascendant games before changes is almost surely better than me, and somehow lower ranked than me, Valve plz fix). Just before the changes to ranked to make it a bellcurve I was playing in high oracle/low phantom lobbies. I just wish that ping wasn't so constricting in this game otherwise I'd probably go to SEA lobbies and play there instead, its what I do for dota as AU mm is dumpster tier in that game too.
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55% winrate to less then 50% in 2 weeks i have over 600 games its always the same fucking shit with this game for the last few weeks now
usually devs take a few years after release to screw up this bad this is early grave digging lmao
 
Like many others have observed, there has been a drastic change in the matchmaking recently and decided to take a more forensic look rather than just dump some matchIds in the megathread and be done with it because the problem feels far more systemic than just "the matchmaker can't make balanced matches".

View attachment 31079

Around two weeks ago my winrate started a nosedive. In that period it's 29W 53L (that's a 35% winrate). I am the same player and as you can see from other metrics like souls, KDA and denies, they are either holding steady or improving, so the question is, how is it possible that a player who is objectively performing better, loses more?

If you flip a coin 100 times you're bound to get streaks of tails.
This is true and in a very black and white example like that I could not argue, however the matchmakers job is to try and push you towards a 50% winrate and ease the difficulty after every loss, yet once this drastic shift occurred, I can find myself up against the sweatiest 6 stacks in my region game after game with no respite.

You must be bad, that's why you're losing.
Before the change I would regularly be in ascendant and phantom lobbies performing well.
View attachment 31084

I am also supposedly the rank #131 Warden and #197 Infernus in my region (OCE)
View attachment 31082View attachment 31081

So how it is possible that I am in so many unwinnable games if there should in theory be a large % of players who aren't as skilled as me?

It's just an alpha playtest!
Is it the goal of the playtest to drive away players with which to test? Because that is what's happening. This is, for lack of a better description, bullshit.

This sounds like you are advocating for something like engagement-based matchmaking
Maybe I am, or at the very least, some more elasticity or rapid elo gains or losses. You can't demoralise a player with an abysmal 35% winrate for weeks on end when they aren't deserving of that (it's not like I am some initiate rank struggling with basic concepts and mechanics) and expect them to stick around.

I will also add even a significant portion of the wins have felt horrible, like I have had no agency in the game and by chance some miracle teamfight swung it at the end, but that doesn't make up for the 30 minutes of misery endured before it.

I'll close by saying that I don't accept that there has been such a sharp change in my play, if anything I have been improving rapidly and trying harder to escape this tailspin of results, but I just keep getting beaten down. I either need some kind of explanation or to just quit and never return due to a feeling of broken trust with the system.
I assume you solo queue? More than likely you're getting poached by stacks. Even if you have solo queue pref it really doesn't do anything.
 
I assume you solo queue? More than likely you're getting poached by stacks. Even if you have solo queue pref it really doesn't do anything.
I wonder if the solo convar only effects your own team.. would explain the negative winrate if you're constantly going against stacks without your own stack
 
I assume you solo queue? More than likely you're getting poached by stacks. Even if you have solo queue pref it really doesn't do anything.
I do group with friends but it varies from night to night.

In any case since making this post I have come to the conclusion that it's just a constant parade of smurfs.

I assume people in Ascendant / Eternus are getting impossibly long queue times so they're just making new accounts to destroy the ecosystem below them.

Two such examples that I could easily grab from my recent match history.

I've now stopped playing the game.

Here's the winrate of one of Papa_Melchett's friends. Can you guess the day they started grouping with their smurf buddy?

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So the explanation of why I am getting more than my fair share of losses, is that people are gaming the system to get more than their fair share of wins.

Valve need to build in some smurf detection or at the very least an MMR multiplier based on winstreaks + performance.
If a brand new player goes 10-0 dropping 20 and 30 bombs every game, it should be obvious that their MMR needs to rise rapidly.
The Papa_Melchett account is currently 26-1..

EDIT: For the record I stabilised at Archon III before quitting. I might have been higher if it wasn't for all the elo thieves on fresh accounts.
 
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